My ‘You Pay Peanuts, You Get Monkeys’ FREE Round Up For 2024 And 2025 Predictions
Big Picture
Huge Congratulations To Mr. Sams
for getting his 2024 property market prediction right!
Paul’s relentless pessimism was
spot on … he predicted 3% (I went bold at 8%). And the results …
Well the full year figures aren’t
quite out yet but 3.5% seems to be on the money. Well done Paul!
Actually, when we made our
predictions in early Jan 2024, no-one was predicting a rise, so actually Paul’s
3% was incredibly optimistic. So big
congrats.
I truly wish the figure were
nearer my 8% prediction but just as we were gaining some summer momentum we faltered
and haven’t quite recovered.
Interest rates
Just like Trump, everyone’s least
favourite, irresistible topic … interest rates! I’m just not sure they’ll live
up to the hype. Will they really come down much? I know everyone wants to think they will, and
we might get some positive activity. But I just can’t see them coming down as
much as we want. It feels like hope over
reality. Inflation might be beaten, but I’m not sure we’ve quite achieved that yet
(especially in the UK) and some of those generous pay awards in 2024 are just working
their way through now. So wage inflation,
and surely, more food inflation?
The one counter to that is something
none of us want … if we enter a full blown recession then, presumably, the MPC
will do everything they can to kick start the economy. So that could produce a fast than expected
drop. I actually think a recession is
quite likely (see next section), but I’m just not that convinced we’ll get too
much interest rate reduction action.
Recession
Are we actually in recession
already? It certainly feels like
it. Well not technically. As in, we
haven’t have 2 quarters or -ve … blah blah … but doesn’t it all feel a bit
gloomy? Businesses have stopped hiring.
Some are laying off people. Everything is expensive. Customer service is crap
everywhere. Retail seems to have got the nod early on this. All the sales started before Christmas. A
sure sign of panic to save the numbers. So no-one is spending.
Property Market
London will continue to do
nothing.
The rest of the country will
largely be more of the same (a slow steady increase that’s not much to shout
about).
There will be a steady stream of
investor bargains as seasoned investors see less and less reason to stay in. They’ll cash in their chips. The Renters’ Rights Bill will scare still more
into selling. Soft demand from buyers
will feed into this. Maybe enough to
stop the gentle market rise.
Rents had a stellar 2024, even if
they started to soften in some parts of the country towards the end of the
year. Rises to continue in 2025.
So with soft prices and rents
going up. That sounds like time to buy!
Will there be a developing boom?
I just don’t see it. No sites.
Zero margins. Planning permission
that’s rarer than a detailed growth plan from the government. And no trades to build them anyway.
Where, just where, are all these
new houses going to come from? Not. Going. To. Happen.
My Year In Investing 2024
This was not a year to remember
for me. With lots of change going on in my personal life, 2024 hasn’t quite
been my annus horribilis but it’s definitely been mixed. I’ve got very near pulling off the deal of a
lifetime (24 units, Africa Drive), but had it cruelly snatched away at the last
minute. And a couple of other great
opportunities just haven’t happened. I’m
looking forward to 2025 being a brighter future.
The Property Meetup has been a
real highlight this year. We’ve had the
most amazing line up of speakers, bouncing off an incredible 2023. Business
gurus, developers building hundreds of flats, BTL investors, HMO investors,
first time investors, expert lawyers. We’ve
had the lot.
A huge thank you to you all for
being part of community in 2024.
The meeting in numbers:
– Held 10 meetings
– Mix of 55% male and 45% female speakers, something I’m proud we’ve achieved and have worked hard at. We narrowly missed our target of 50/50, skewed slightly by Paul and I both taking a main slot each.
– Had 324 people attending across the entire
year
– 66 different attendees
– Making an average attendance of 5 meetings /
year, though there is a huge number who attend 8+ of the 10 meetings in a year
Overall
General doom and gloom. Lots of opportunity.
